Weekly Market Commentary: August 29, 2026

Index Performance

Major Themes

Nvidia and Salesforce Reset the AI Earnings Bar

The week turned on two earnings reports that arrived Wednesday evening after the close. Nvidia posted fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase that exceeded the $92.07 billion Wall Street consensus by more than $4 billion. Data center revenue alone came in at $89 billion, up 117% from the prior year, and adjusted earnings reached $2.22 per share against expectations of $2.09. The forward number, which is what actually moves the stock, was equally striking: Nvidia guided its fiscal third quarter to $108 billion, roughly $4 billion above what analysts had penciled in. Shares climbed 8.74% on Thursday.

Salesforce delivered its own jolt. The company reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $11.35 billion, up 11% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.90 against a consensus estimate of $3.27. A gain on its Anthropic stake inflated the headline profit figure, but current remaining performance obligations also grew 14% year over year in constant currency, a sign that underlying demand is building rather than borrowed. Salesforce stock surged 22.6% on Thursday, its largest single-session gain in six years. Both prints reinforced that the investment cycle in AI infrastructure and enterprise AI software is still compounding, even at scale.

Warsh Draws a Line at Jackson Hole

The week's other defining event was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote address at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh said that while recent inflation readings were "better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." He recommitted to the 2% PCE target as the Fed's north star and described short-term interest rates as the primary policy tool, stopping short of committing to a September hike but leaving room for one. Money markets subsequently priced in roughly a 50% probability of a rate increase at the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.

The speech landed on top of two macro releases from Wednesday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% rate in its second estimate, unchanged from the advance print and a step down from the 2.1% pace in the first quarter. On the same morning, the July PCE price index held at a 3.7% annual rate, matching June and coming in slightly above consensus. The juxtaposition is uncomfortable: growth is slowing while the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely is not. That tension is precisely what pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.73% by Friday's close, a 4-basis-point rise on the week and near the high set on July 31.

Energy Markets Ease as Hormuz Flows Recover

A quieter story ran in the background. Crude oil fell roughly 5.5% on the week, with Brent settling near $89 a barrel, as traders grew more confident that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering at a faster pace than diplomacy would suggest. Reuters reported Friday that improving physical flows, combined with an Iran-Oman corridor proposal, were reducing the supply-risk premium that had kept Brent above $94 as recently as the prior Friday. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have climbed meaningfully from their trough. Lower energy prices act as a mild disinflationary offset, though they are unlikely to move the needle enough to change the Fed's calculus if core PCE stays sticky.

Looking Ahead

The coming week is holiday-shortened. U.S. equity markets are closed Monday, September 1, for Labor Day. When trading resumes Tuesday, investors will get ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings data alongside Broadcom's (AVGO) fiscal third-quarter earnings after the close. Broadcom had guided Q3 revenue to $29.4 billion, an 84% year-over-year increase, and its results will be the next read on whether AI semiconductor demand extends beyond Nvidia. ADP private payrolls arrive Wednesday, with the August nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled for Friday, September 5.

The jobs number matters more than usual. After Warsh's remarks, markets need to know whether the labor market is running hot enough to justify a rate increase. A payroll print that surprises to the upside would likely push yields higher and force a harder look at whether equities can absorb a September hike, particularly after the sharp single-session gains in AI-related names this week. Plans built on the assumption of a rate-cut cycle in 2026 deserve a second look in this environment. In the Soil layer of the Sporos Doctrine, tax location and Roth conversion timing are the two levers most directly affected by where rates settle over the next twelve months.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.