Weekly Market Commentary: August 22, 2026

Index Performance

Major Themes

The Bond Market Is Running the Show

The week's defining story was not equities — it was the Treasury market, and what happened there matters for every retiree and pre-retiree who holds a portfolio.

The 10-year yield touched an intraday high of 4.75% and the 30-year bond briefly hit 5.34%, a level not seen in roughly 19 years, as concerns about the national debt and a buyers' strike in long-duration Treasuries intensified. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to intervene, announcing that the department would at least double the size of its debt-repurchase operations targeting the 10- to 30-year segment of the curve. Yields fell sharply in response, with the 10-year dropping roughly 6 basis points and the 30-year tumbling 9 basis points on Wednesday alone.

The relief did not hold. By Thursday, yields had rebounded almost entirely, the Dow shed 703 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Markets were essentially being told that accelerated buybacks can cushion a bad auction week, but they cannot reprice the long-run fiscal trajectory. For clients whose plans still assume a "normal" rate environment, this is the week worth reviewing in the Soil layer of the plan — because the wrapper your bonds sit in, and their duration, is doing far more work than most portfolios acknowledge. You can read more about how we structure this at the Sporos Doctrine.

U.S.-Iran Tensions Push Energy Prices Higher

Geopolitical risk layered onto the rate story throughout the week. President Trump said the U.S. would not revive a stalled truce with Iran and announced what he characterized as an "economic warfare" plan, raising fears of further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil climbed toward $87 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns that had been cooling after the prior week's July CPI print of 3.4% year-over-year.

The energy risk landed hardest in the technology sector. Amkor Technology fell nearly 15% on the week, Credo Technology dropped roughly 11%, and Meta Platforms shed close to 7%, as investors worried that higher energy costs and sticky inflation could narrow the window for any Federal Reserve rate relief. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF lost nearly 5% over five days, its worst stretch since spring.

Friday's PMI Brought a Genuine Surprise

Not everything pointed down. Friday morning's S&P Global Flash Composite PMI came in at 56.0, up from 54.5 in July and the highest reading since April 2022, a notable beat against the 54.0 consensus. Services led the rebound, hiring accelerated to its fastest pace since January, and input-price pressures eased. Ross Stores added to the positive tone after reporting Q2 earnings per share of $2.66, well above the $1.94 analyst consensus, on revenue of $6.30 billion, and raised its full-year guidance. The news helped stocks stage a partial recovery: the Dow gained 518 points on Friday, though all three major indices still closed the week in the red.

The PMI number illustrates a tension worth sitting with: the economy is growing faster than almost anyone expected, yet that same growth is one reason the Fed feels no urgency to cut. A strong economy and stubborn long rates are not necessarily bad news for a well-constructed plan, but they do demand that the income floor be sized for today's rates rather than tomorrow's hoped-for cuts.

Looking Ahead

The week of August 24 is dense with market-moving events. Nvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, August 26, with analysts expecting revenue of approximately $93 to $95 billion, which would represent year-over-year growth of roughly 67%. What the company says about Blackwell chip demand, China export policy, and the trajectory of AI-related capital expenditure will likely set the tone for the entire technology sector into September.

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs August 27 through 29, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair on Friday, August 28. Markets will parse every word for signals on whether the September meeting is live for a hike, a hold, or any pivot in forward guidance. Marvell Technology also reports Thursday, August 28. Conference Board Consumer Confidence and new home sales data round out the economic calendar mid-week. It is, in short, the kind of week that rewards having a plan already in place rather than making decisions in real time.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.