Weekly Market Commentary: June 13, 2026

Index Performance

Major Themes

SpaceX Makes History on Nasdaq

The story of the week, arguably the story of the year, was the debut of SpaceX (SPCX) on the Nasdaq on Friday. Priced at $135 per share, the stock opened at $150 and closed at approximately $161, a first-day gain of 19%. The offering raised $75 billion, making it the largest initial public offering in Wall Street history by a wide margin. On paper, Elon Musk crossed the $1 trillion net worth threshold for the first time.

The lift carried through the broader market on Friday. Goldman Sachs, which led the underwriting, gained 2.57% on the day. Sentiment across financial stocks improved broadly, with JPMorgan adding 2.25%. The excitement was not evenly distributed, though. Apple fell 1.52% on the day, and tech-adjacent names wavered as investors weighed whether SpaceX's massive capital raise would redirect AI infrastructure spending. SpaceX's acquisition of Musk's xAI startup in February, which brought Grok and a portfolio of data centers into the company, added complexity to that question for investors already sorting through a crowded AI landscape.

Inflation Stays Hot, Central Banks Respond

Wednesday's CPI report for May confirmed what energy prices had been telegraphing for weeks. Headline inflation rose 4.2% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023 and up from 3.8% in April. Energy drove the surge: gasoline prices climbed 40.5% annually and fuel oil rose 58.9%, both directly tied to supply disruption from the U.S.-Iran conflict. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 2.9% annually, with a monthly gain of just 0.2%, showing that energy shock has so far not badly contaminated the underlying price structure.

Thursday's Producer Price Index added more heat. The PPI for final demand rose 1.1% in May, with final demand goods surging 2.8%, the largest single-month increase in the history of that data series going back to December 2009. Nearly 80% of the headline acceleration came from goods prices. That same day, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first increase since 2023, citing the Middle East conflict as a direct driver of euro-area inflation. For clients thinking about the Soil layer of a retirement plan, the combination of a resurgent inflation print, a still-elevated core rate, and a hawkish ECB is a useful reminder that asset location and tax-bracket management are not just planning niceties in a high-yield environment. The bond market spent the week reflecting all of this ambiguity: the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply on Thursday, then partially recovered Friday, ending the week at 4.47%, 8 basis points below where it started.

Iran Signals Whip Markets Mid-Week

The most disruptive force between Monday and Thursday was not a data release but a series of contradictory geopolitical signals around a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Monday began with cautious optimism. Tuesday and Wednesday brought sharper swings as Trump alternated between confident deal talk and warnings that Iran needed to "get serious soon, before it is too late." The U.S. launched strikes on southern Iran on Tuesday night, rattling bond and equity markets. Then on Thursday afternoon, Trump announced he was canceling planned follow-on strikes and that a deal could be signed "as soon as this weekend in Europe." Oil fell sharply. Treasury yields tumbled about 10 basis points in the Thursday session alone, and stocks recovered their footing. WTI crude settled Friday at $84.88 per barrel, down roughly 6% on the week, though still more than 20% above pre-conflict levels. The VIX closed at 17.68, down significantly on the day, reflecting Friday's calmer tone. No deal had been formally signed as of the Friday close.

Looking Ahead

The coming week carries more weight than most. The Federal Open Market Committee meets June 16 and 17 in Kevin Warsh's first session as Fed Chair. The decision is expected to be a hold, keeping the federal funds rate in its current 3.50%–3.75% target range. What matters more is the updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, which will show how the committee has revised its inflation and rate-path forecasts in light of three consecutive months of accelerating headline CPI. Markets will also watch whether the lone remaining 2026 rate cut in the prior dot plot survives. May retail sales land the morning of the Fed decision on June 17, and May housing starts report June 16. Markets are closed Thursday, June 19, for Juneteenth. Notable earnings in the abbreviated week include CarMax (KMX) on Wednesday and Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR) on Thursday ahead of the holiday.

The Bank of Japan also meets June 16, and commentary out of Tokyo on the yen and domestic inflation could add another variable for global bond markets already processing the ECB's hawkish pivot.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.