Weekly Market Commentary: May 23, 2026

Index Performance

Index	Close	Weekly Change
S&P 500	7,473.47	+0.9%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	50,579.70	+2.1%
Nasdaq Composite	26,343.97	+0.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.56%	-3 bps

U.S. equity markets will be closed Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day.

Major Themes

Nvidia Sets the Tone for AI Infrastructure

Nvidia reported record revenue of $81.6 billion for its fiscal first quarter, up 85% from a year ago and well ahead of the Street's $78.9 billion estimate. Data Center revenue came in at $75.2 billion, beating the $73.5 billion consensus. The company also announced an $80 billion additional share repurchase authorization and a quarterly cash dividend increase from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

The results were good enough to keep the AI infrastructure trade alive, and the read-through was immediate. Dell Technologies and HP jumped by double-digit percentages on upbeat expectations ahead of their own earnings next week, with analysts pointing to Nvidia's order-book strength as a direct signal for server and storage demand. Despite the headline beat, Nvidia itself slipped 1.86% on Friday as some investors rotated proceeds into names with more near-term upside.

Walmart reported Q1 calendar-year 2026 revenue of $175.7 billion, up 6.1% year over year and roughly in line with expectations. Next quarter's revenue guidance of $185.4 billion came in 0.5% below analyst estimates, sending the stock down as the market weighed whether rising fuel costs and cautious consumer sentiment would compress margins in the back half of the year.

A New Fed Chair and a Hawkish Set of Minutes

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22. Warsh steps into the role as inflation remains elevated and the FOMC faces internal division. The Fed has held rates at 3.50%–3.75% through its most recent meeting. The ceremony at the White House came just one day after the release of the April FOMC minutes.

The May 2026 FOMC minutes, released on May 21, revealed how fractured the committee has become, with three distinct camps emerging and a hawkish axis openly keeping rate hikes on the table. The minutes showed that several officials believe the Fed may eventually need to raise rates again if inflation fails to cool meaningfully. Traders now see a 57% chance of at least one rate hike by December, according to CME FedWatch. For clients in the Soil layer of their plan, this is a meaningful data point: the rate environment that shaped today's bond allocations may look different by year-end, and tax location decisions made now need to hold up across both a hold and a hike scenario.

Oil Prices Retreat on Iran Diplomacy

Oil prices posted a weekly loss as the U.S. and Iran signaled progress in talks to end the war. Brent crude fell more than 5% for the week, closing Friday at $103.54 per barrel. WTI settled at $96.60 per barrel on Friday. The retreat was driven by market hopes that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the supply constraints that have kept crude elevated for months.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that indirect negotiations had seen "a little bit of movement, and that's good," but meaningful differences remain. Iran's foreign ministry stated that differences between the two sides remained deep, leaving the situation fragile. Lower oil prices offered some relief to inflation expectations and helped pull the 10-year Treasury yield down from its intraweek high of roughly 4.62% to close at 4.56%.

Looking Ahead

Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day. The week then brings May consumer confidence on Tuesday, April new home sales on Wednesday, and, on Thursday, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP alongside April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. With the FOMC now openly debating a hike, a hot PCE print could move markets more than it would have even a month ago.

On the earnings front, Salesforce, Marvell Technology, and Snowflake report Wednesday, followed by Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, MongoDB, Costco, and Best Buy on Thursday. Dell's quarter will be watched especially closely given the AI server read-through from Nvidia's blowout results. Any guidance commentary on enterprise demand will matter.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.