Weekly Market Commentary: April 25, 2026

Index Performance

Index	Close	Weekly Change
S&P 500	7,165.08	+0.6%
Dow Jones	49,230.71	-0.4%
Nasdaq Composite	24,836.60	+1.5%
10-Year Treasury	4.31%	+7 bps

Major Themes

Semiconductors Drive the Indexes to New Records

The AI buildout trade went into overdrive. Semiconductor stocks notched their 18th straight up day, Nvidia retook a $5 trillion market capitalization, and Intel cleared its 2000 dot-com peak. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished at fresh record closes. Through Friday, with roughly a third of the index reported, 84% of S&P 500 companies had beaten Q1 EPS estimates and blended earnings growth was running at +15.1% year over year — well above the season's pre-reporting baseline. The Dow lagged on energy and defensive rotation and finished the week red.

Geopolitics Whipsawed Sentiment

Stalled US-Iran talks and renewed disruption signals around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil and Treasury yields higher midweek, with the 10-year climbing for five consecutive sessions before easing into Friday on a late-week ceasefire-extension headline. The pattern continues to be familiar: any de-escalation tone is met with a sharp risk-on move; any setback brings yields and energy back to the front of the tape.

Hot Retail Sales Reignite the Soft-Landing Debate

March retail sales jumped +1.7%, the strongest reading in more than three years. The print reinforced the "no-landing, sticky-inflation" narrative, lifted yields, and steepened the curve into the weekend. Combined with continued Q1 earnings strength, the data made it harder for markets to argue for any near-term Fed easing — which sets up an interesting backdrop for next week's FOMC meeting.

Looking Ahead

Next week is one of the most important macro and earnings weeks of the year. Wednesday brings the FOMC decision and Chair Powell's press conference, alongside ADP private payrolls. After the close that day, four of the Magnificent Seven report — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon. Apple follows after the close on Thursday.

Thursday morning packs three top-tier data prints into a single 8:30 release: Q1 advance GDP, March PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), and the Q1 Employment Cost Index. Friday closes with April nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and ISM Manufacturing. ExxonMobil and Chevron also report. Expect outsized two-way moves.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.