Weekly Market Commentary: April 11, 2026

Index Performance

Major Themes

A Hot Headline CPI With a Tame Core

Friday's March CPI report was the week's headline event. Headline inflation jumped to +3.3% year over year — the first full read after the late-February escalation in the Middle East — driven almost entirely by energy. The energy index rose 10.9% month over month, with gasoline up 21.2% on the month. Critically, core CPI was tame at +0.2% month over month and +2.6% year over year, with shelter cooling to 3.0%. Markets read the print as an oil-driven shock rather than a broad re-acceleration of underlying inflation, which is why equities rallied and yields finished roughly unchanged.

Best Week Since November on Easing Geopolitics and Earnings Optimism

A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire continued to hold, oil-shock fears eased further, and the indexes posted their largest weekly gains since November. AI-buildout demand and an early upside surprise from Goldman Sachs — the bank front-ran the kickoff with EPS of $17.55 versus $16.47 expected and a record $5.33 billion in equities trading revenue — reinforced the move higher.

Hawkish FOMC Minutes Get Shrugged Off

Wednesday's release of the March FOMC minutes revealed a divided committee. Some officials wanted to keep the door open to additional rate hikes given the inflation risk from the Iran-driven oil shock, while staff still saw inflation eventually converging to 2%. Combined with a soft revision to the third estimate of Q4 GDP (+0.5% annualized), the tone was stagflationary on paper. Markets shrugged it off, rewarding the cooperative core CPI reading instead.

Looking Ahead

Next week is the busiest stretch of the early Q1 reporting season. Tuesday brings JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, plus Johnson & Johnson and the March PPI release. Wednesday adds Bank of America and Morgan Stanley alongside the Empire State manufacturing survey. Thursday is the data-heaviest day: March retail sales, industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly jobless claims, and Netflix earnings after the close. Friday brings March housing starts, building permits, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

With the energy story partially de-risked, breadth and follow-through in non-tech sectors will tell us whether this rebound is the start of a durable move or a relief rally inside a still-volatile tape.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.